Mortgage Rates



This is employment week, always a big one for the markets. ADP will report its estimate for private jobs in May on Thursday then the BLS reports the “official;” report on Friday. In the meantime Europe still dominates overall, now Spain is taking the spotlight on concerns Spanish banks are teetering on the edge and need capital infusion in some manner in order to remain solvent. It only gets worse in Europe, Greece is increasingly viewed as leaving the EU with the deciding vote in about two weeks (June 17th).

How low can US interest rates fall? Based on comparisons of some other AAA sovereign yields the US 10 yr note is cheap, trading at 1.73% this morning compared to Germany’s 10 yr bund at 1.346%; the spread .385 bp at 9:30. $ yrs and counting, the US budget deficits have exceeded $1.0T with US debt downgraded by rating agencies and no longer AAA. One of the key drivers for US interest rates is there are better yields here than in Germany, Australia and other better controlled countries. The extra yield investors receive for holding Treasuries is an added benefit for investors seeking a haven from Europe’s sovereign debt turmoil. In the US there is absolutely no incentive for politicians to focus on budgets; neither Democrats or republicans, no matter what comes out of their mouths, our politicians have no interest in actually dealing with excess spending regardless of what you may here from any of them.

Home values in 20 U.S. cities fell in the 12 months ended March at the slowest pace in more than a year as lower borrowing costs and an improving job market gave sales a boost. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 2.6% from a year earlier after a 3.5% drop in February.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +83, NASDAQ +25; 10 yr note +3/32 at 1.73% -1 bp and mortgage prices that were slightly better early were unchanged.

At 10:00 May consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, expected at 69.4, was a lot weaker at 64.9 frm rev’d Apr at 68.7 frm 69.2. Expectations at 77.6 frm 80.4, the present situation at 45.9 frm 51.2. The rep[ort on consumers is a lot weaker than what the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index reported last week. The reaction wasn’t much, the 10 yr note moved up 2/32 in price but the stock market ignored the report.
Probably won’t see much movement in the financial markets through the rest of the day; at least until; 3:00 for the stock market. The final hour in stock trading is generally volatile. The interest rate markets are not likely to improve a whole lot this week until employment on Friday or a significant decline on German 10 yr bunds. Technically the US 10 yr is going to need a large push to move and stay below 1.70%. Mortgage rates are likely to be unchanged through most of this four day week.