Mortgage Rates
The bond and mortgage markets continue to trade quietly with little change this week ahead of the EU summit beginning tomorrow. The stock indexes a little better early on as May durable goods orders were better than thought. Durables up 1.1% with forecasts of +0.5%; ex the volatile transportation orders up 0.4%, less than 0.7% expected. April ex transportation orders were revised from -0.9% to -0.6%. Growth is cooling as a slowdown in global markets emanating from Europe harms exports and curtails equipment spending, hurting sales at manufacturers.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +45, NASDAQ +12; the 10 yr note at 9:30 +1/32 at 1.62% while mortgage prices were down 1/32 (.03 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 6.15%, after rising to 6.20%, the highest level since June 14. Spain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 6.85%, after jumping 49 basis points over the past two days. Spain and other countries are going to push for measures to bring down borrowing costs when European Union leaders meet for a two-day summit starting tomorrow in Brussels. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today issuing common bonds is the “wrong way” to achieve the greater integration needed to resolve the debt crisis. She said Spain was right to request for help for its banks and Italy was on path to growth. Merkel has caused tension among EU members by resisting calls for joint euro bonds. Germany’s 10-year bund yield climbed four basis points to 1.55% after dropping to 1.46% two days ago, the lowest level since June 19. It wasn’t too long ago that the German 10 yr traded 30 basis points lower in yield than US 10s, now just 7 bps lower.
Merkel said that euro bonds, euro bills and debt redemption funds are unconstitutional in Germany and economically “wrong and counterproductive.” The EU summit appears to be an attempt to get euro bonds to take the heat off Spain and Italy as well as other debt ladened countries in the region. “I fear that at the summit there will be much too much talk about mutual liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures,” she said. “Oversight and liability have to go hand in hand. There can only be joint liability when adequate oversight is ensured;” Germany isn’t about to tie itself to poorly managed countries. “The sovereign debt crisis shows us daily that deficiencies in one euro-zone country can cause difficulties in the entire euro zone,” Merkel commented. “It also shows us that national answers aren’t enough to secure the euro area’s stability.” The summit isn’t going anywhere as long as Germany doesn’t get its way.
The NAR reported May pending home sales up 5.9% with forecasts of an increase of 1.0%. Much stronger with strength coming from the West where prices are increasing in places like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Yr/yr pending home sales up 13.3%. On the news the stock market increased a little but the bond and mortgage markets showed no reaction.
This afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 5 yr notes; yesterday’s 2 yr was OK but not unusually strong; the 5 yr may also have a little less bidding today.
Mortgage applications decreased 7.1% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 22, 2012. The Refinance Index decreased 8.0% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0% from one week earlier. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 79 percent of total applications from over 80 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity is about 4.0% of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 3.88% from 3.87%, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.49 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.12% from 4.06%, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.71% from 3.72%, with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.47 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.24% from 3.25%, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.81% from 2.75%, with points increasing to 0.41 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.
Equity Investment Capital (EIC), has made it our mission to utilize our different roles and strengths and we make it our personal responsibility to educate you as the client. All of our efforts will be focused on partnering with you and giving you the tools to identify the proper mortgage or investment product for you. One that fits your financial goals, increases your cash flow and minimizes your taxes. We are honored to be a part of your financial team. Office 866-532-1744
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Mortgage Rates
Treasuries and mortgages improved yesterday as the stock market declined; today, as has been the case recently, after a day of improvement in the bond markets prices are weaker. The stock indexes are better this morning, both markets are in tight narrow ranges for the last three weeks.
The Case/Shiller April price index declined in April but was the best in months. Property values in 20 cities dropped 1.9% in April from the same month in 2011, the smallest decline since November 2010, after decreasing 2.6% in the year ended March. Phoenix showed the biggest adjusted monthly increase, with prices rising 2.5% from March. Detroit showed the biggest decrease at 2.1%. Ten of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over-year decline, led by a 17% drop in Atlanta, the only city to show a double-digit decrease. Phoenix showed the biggest year-over-year increase, with prices rising 8.6% in the 12 months to April.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +24, NASDAQ +10; the 10 yr note -9/32 at 1.64% +3 bp and 30 yr mortgage prices down 4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
At 10:00 June consumer confidence index, expected at 64.0 frm 64.9, fell to 62.0 and May revised to 64.4 The present situation index at 46.6 frm 44.9 (revised frm 45.9); the expectations index at 72.3 frm 77.3 (revised frm 77.6). The confidence index is the lowest since last January and the expectations index the lowest since last November. No reaction to the weaker data, yet it is another weak report as most reports have been the last six weeks.
At 1:00 Treasury will auction $35B of 2 yr notes; demand is expected to be OK but not stellar.
Europe still is the centerpiece for global market outlooks as the region is completely unable to solve the debt issues in the EU. Thursday begins the 19th summit meeting since 2010 when the crisis began; no progress so far in attacking the problems head on and there isn’t likely to any progress this time around. Four officials led by European Union President Herman Van Rompuy today released a road map to a fiscal and banking union that ran into immediate criticism from Germany for placing too little emphasis on controlling national budgets. The “map” centered on common banking supervision and deposit insurance and a “criteria-based and phased” move toward joint debt issuance. It also suggests that the EU could impose upper limits on annual budgets and debt levels of nations that use the euro. Germany’s instant opposition lessened the chances that the summit will end with any plan once again. Nero was said to have sat and played his lute while Rome burned down, today Europe is burning while all the leaders play their fiddles.
US interest rates remain essentially unchanged now for the last three weeks; improving yesterday and this morning falling back. There is little chance the bond and mortgage markets will change much until the end of the circus known as the EU summit meeting that concludes on Friday. Based on news reports this morning it appears it will be another summit that fails to accomplish much and in turn should keep US interest rates from increasing. We still hold that as long as the bellwether 10 yr note can hold under 1.70% the outlook will remain positive for the bond markets.
Treasuries and mortgages improved yesterday as the stock market declined; today, as has been the case recently, after a day of improvement in the bond markets prices are weaker. The stock indexes are better this morning, both markets are in tight narrow ranges for the last three weeks.
The Case/Shiller April price index declined in April but was the best in months. Property values in 20 cities dropped 1.9% in April from the same month in 2011, the smallest decline since November 2010, after decreasing 2.6% in the year ended March. Phoenix showed the biggest adjusted monthly increase, with prices rising 2.5% from March. Detroit showed the biggest decrease at 2.1%. Ten of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over-year decline, led by a 17% drop in Atlanta, the only city to show a double-digit decrease. Phoenix showed the biggest year-over-year increase, with prices rising 8.6% in the 12 months to April.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +24, NASDAQ +10; the 10 yr note -9/32 at 1.64% +3 bp and 30 yr mortgage prices down 4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
At 10:00 June consumer confidence index, expected at 64.0 frm 64.9, fell to 62.0 and May revised to 64.4 The present situation index at 46.6 frm 44.9 (revised frm 45.9); the expectations index at 72.3 frm 77.3 (revised frm 77.6). The confidence index is the lowest since last January and the expectations index the lowest since last November. No reaction to the weaker data, yet it is another weak report as most reports have been the last six weeks.
At 1:00 Treasury will auction $35B of 2 yr notes; demand is expected to be OK but not stellar.
Europe still is the centerpiece for global market outlooks as the region is completely unable to solve the debt issues in the EU. Thursday begins the 19th summit meeting since 2010 when the crisis began; no progress so far in attacking the problems head on and there isn’t likely to any progress this time around. Four officials led by European Union President Herman Van Rompuy today released a road map to a fiscal and banking union that ran into immediate criticism from Germany for placing too little emphasis on controlling national budgets. The “map” centered on common banking supervision and deposit insurance and a “criteria-based and phased” move toward joint debt issuance. It also suggests that the EU could impose upper limits on annual budgets and debt levels of nations that use the euro. Germany’s instant opposition lessened the chances that the summit will end with any plan once again. Nero was said to have sat and played his lute while Rome burned down, today Europe is burning while all the leaders play their fiddles.
US interest rates remain essentially unchanged now for the last three weeks; improving yesterday and this morning falling back. There is little chance the bond and mortgage markets will change much until the end of the circus known as the EU summit meeting that concludes on Friday. Based on news reports this morning it appears it will be another summit that fails to accomplish much and in turn should keep US interest rates from increasing. We still hold that as long as the bellwether 10 yr note can hold under 1.70% the outlook will remain positive for the bond markets.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
The backing and filling is continuing to day in early activity; the 10 yr note is improving as are mortgage prices while the stock indexes are opening lower. The 10 yr yield has ranged from a high of 1.68% and a low of 1.57% over the last three weeks, mortgage rates have ranged just 6 basis points in rate on 30 yr mortgages in the same time frame. The Fed has revised its economic growth outlook lower for the first time since last November, mostly based on the decline in Europe’s economy. On Thursday and Friday there is an EU summit meeting that isn’t likely to resolve much; meeting upon meeting over the last two years has not accomplished anything of significance for the long run; just putting out brush fires. This time should be no different as Germany remains opposed to a plan that would set up deposit insurance fund to protect all depositors against failures. Germany stands opposed to any plan that allows individual states to set their own austerity targets.
Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders meeting on June 28 to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a June 15 speech that she opposed “premature” proposals for issuing euro-area bonds. Spain formally requested a bailout for its banks as it negotiated details of the aid. A few weeks ago Soros commented the EU had 90 days to work out a solution before the euro currency would collapse. Europe’s debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies cutting forecasts and signaling profits will fall at more companies this year.
Early this morning the 10 yr note traded up 18/32 at 1.61% and 30 yr FNMAs were up as much as 8/32 (.25 bp), by 9:30 the 10 was up 14/32 and 30 yr Fannie up 4/32 (.12 bp). The DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -33; the 10 yr up 16/32 at 1.62% -5 bp and 30 yr MBS prices +6/32 (.18 bp). Markets expecting the Supreme Court decision sometime today; talk that the ruling would be announced at 10:00.
At 10:00 May new home sales were expected to be up 2.0% frm April; as reported sales jumped 7.6% to 369K units (annualized); April sales however were revised lower, from +3.3% to -1.2%. Based on the sales pace there is a dwindling supply, 4.7 months down from 5 months in April. The median sales price at $234,500 up 5.6% yr/yr. Sales total was the largest since April 2010; the 4.7 month supply is the lowest since Oct 2005. There was no initial reaction to the report in the stock or bond markets.
This week has Treasury selling $99B of notes Tuesday through Thursday. There are a number of key data points; May consumer confidence, May durable goods orders, weekly claims, May personal income and spending, June Chicago purchasing mgrs. index lead the parade.
The recent trading ranges in the treasury and mortgage markets are likely to hold any movement this week. The EU summit isn’t getting any respect from the markets with Germany continuing to resist about any idea tossed out for consideration. As long as Germany is unwilling to bend (and take on more risk) there is little chance there is going to be an acceptable long range “plan”. Germany won’t move off its stringent objections to anything as long as it isn’t forced to do so. The force would come when the German economy softens more and the German bond market comes under pressure; so far German debt yields very low rates as demand for its debt from Europeans continues robust.
Mortgage Rates
The backing and filling is continuing to day in early activity; the 10 yr note is improving as are mortgage prices while the stock indexes are opening lower. The 10 yr yield has ranged from a high of 1.68% and a low of 1.57% over the last three weeks, mortgage rates have ranged just 6 basis points in rate on 30 yr mortgages in the same time frame. The Fed has revised its economic growth outlook lower for the first time since last November, mostly based on the decline in Europe’s economy. On Thursday and Friday there is an EU summit meeting that isn’t likely to resolve much; meeting upon meeting over the last two years has not accomplished anything of significance for the long run; just putting out brush fires. This time should be no different as Germany remains opposed to a plan that would set up deposit insurance fund to protect all depositors against failures. Germany stands opposed to any plan that allows individual states to set their own austerity targets.
Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders meeting on June 28 to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a June 15 speech that she opposed “premature” proposals for issuing euro-area bonds. Spain formally requested a bailout for its banks as it negotiated details of the aid. A few weeks ago Soros commented the EU had 90 days to work out a solution before the euro currency would collapse. Europe’s debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies cutting forecasts and signaling profits will fall at more companies this year.
Early this morning the 10 yr note traded up 18/32 at 1.61% and 30 yr FNMAs were up as much as 8/32 (.25 bp), by 9:30 the 10 was up 14/32 and 30 yr Fannie up 4/32 (.12 bp). The DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -33; the 10 yr up 16/32 at 1.62% -5 bp and 30 yr MBS prices +6/32 (.18 bp). Markets expecting the Supreme Court decision sometime today; talk that the ruling would be announced at 10:00.
At 10:00 May new home sales were expected to be up 2.0% frm April; as reported sales jumped 7.6% to 369K units (annualized); April sales however were revised lower, from +3.3% to -1.2%. Based on the sales pace there is a dwindling supply, 4.7 months down from 5 months in April. The median sales price at $234,500 up 5.6% yr/yr. Sales total was the largest since April 2010; the 4.7 month supply is the lowest since Oct 2005. There was no initial reaction to the report in the stock or bond markets.
This week has Treasury selling $99B of notes Tuesday through Thursday. There are a number of key data points; May consumer confidence, May durable goods orders, weekly claims, May personal income and spending, June Chicago purchasing mgrs. index lead the parade.
The recent trading ranges in the treasury and mortgage markets are likely to hold any movement this week. The EU summit isn’t getting any respect from the markets with Germany continuing to resist about any idea tossed out for consideration. As long as Germany is unwilling to bend (and take on more risk) there is little chance there is going to be an acceptable long range “plan”. Germany won’t move off its stringent objections to anything as long as it isn’t forced to do so. The force would come when the German economy softens more and the German bond market comes under pressure; so far German debt yields very low rates as demand for its debt from Europeans continues robust.
The backing and filling is continuing to day in early activity; the 10 yr note is improving as are mortgage prices while the stock indexes are opening lower. The 10 yr yield has ranged from a high of 1.68% and a low of 1.57% over the last three weeks, mortgage rates have ranged just 6 basis points in rate on 30 yr mortgages in the same time frame. The Fed has revised its economic growth outlook lower for the first time since last November, mostly based on the decline in Europe’s economy. On Thursday and Friday there is an EU summit meeting that isn’t likely to resolve much; meeting upon meeting over the last two years has not accomplished anything of significance for the long run; just putting out brush fires. This time should be no different as Germany remains opposed to a plan that would set up deposit insurance fund to protect all depositors against failures. Germany stands opposed to any plan that allows individual states to set their own austerity targets.
Billionaire investor George Soros called on Europe to start a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, warning that a failure by leaders meeting on June 28 to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a June 15 speech that she opposed “premature” proposals for issuing euro-area bonds. Spain formally requested a bailout for its banks as it negotiated details of the aid. A few weeks ago Soros commented the EU had 90 days to work out a solution before the euro currency would collapse. Europe’s debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies cutting forecasts and signaling profits will fall at more companies this year.
Early this morning the 10 yr note traded up 18/32 at 1.61% and 30 yr FNMAs were up as much as 8/32 (.25 bp), by 9:30 the 10 was up 14/32 and 30 yr Fannie up 4/32 (.12 bp). The DJIA opened -90, NASDAQ -33; the 10 yr up 16/32 at 1.62% -5 bp and 30 yr MBS prices +6/32 (.18 bp). Markets expecting the Supreme Court decision sometime today; talk that the ruling would be announced at 10:00.
At 10:00 May new home sales were expected to be up 2.0% frm April; as reported sales jumped 7.6% to 369K units (annualized); April sales however were revised lower, from +3.3% to -1.2%. Based on the sales pace there is a dwindling supply, 4.7 months down from 5 months in April. The median sales price at $234,500 up 5.6% yr/yr. Sales total was the largest since April 2010; the 4.7 month supply is the lowest since Oct 2005. There was no initial reaction to the report in the stock or bond markets.
This week has Treasury selling $99B of notes Tuesday through Thursday. There are a number of key data points; May consumer confidence, May durable goods orders, weekly claims, May personal income and spending, June Chicago purchasing mgrs. index lead the parade.
The recent trading ranges in the treasury and mortgage markets are likely to hold any movement this week. The EU summit isn’t getting any respect from the markets with Germany continuing to resist about any idea tossed out for consideration. As long as Germany is unwilling to bend (and take on more risk) there is little chance there is going to be an acceptable long range “plan”. Germany won’t move off its stringent objections to anything as long as it isn’t forced to do so. The force would come when the German economy softens more and the German bond market comes under pressure; so far German debt yields very low rates as demand for its debt from Europeans continues robust.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Mortgage Rates
Treasuries and mortgages opened slightly weaker this morning with stock indexes a little better early on after the DJIA dropped 251 points yesterday. There are no data releases today and being Friday markets are likely to be rather mundane through the day.
Late yesterday afternoon Moody’s lowered credit ratings on 15 US and global banks, commenting the deterioration in debt quality has become worrisome. That Moody’s lowered big banks hasn’t caused any serious reaction, in fact after the ratings were announced the banks affected actually rallied in after-market trading yesterday. Moody’s announced last February it was analyzing banks in the wake of Europe’s debt crisis and originally the credit rating cuts were expected in May but Moody’s is saying it delayed it to give additional time to do its homework. The idea is that with lower credit ratings borrowing costs would increase, in this case that isn’t very likely as borrowing costs are so low and in some sense it is all relative in that most of the big banks fell together. One big bank commented the move was backward thinking as most banks that were cut were already beefing up their balance sheets. US banks downgraded; Citi, BofA, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Moody’s lowered rating based primarily on its outlook that global growth is declining.
The evidence of global slowing continues almost daily; today German business confidence fell to the lowest in more than two years in June as the worsening sovereign debt crisis clouded the economic outlook. The Munich-based Ifo institute said today its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped for a second straight month to 105.3 from 106.9 in May. That’s the lowest reading since March 2010. Yesterday a survey of purchasing managers showed German manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace in three years. He strongest economy in the euro region is sliding rapidly as the EU struggles to find a plan to shore up banks in Spain and Italy, work out a plan to keep Greece from crumbling and help Ireland and Portugal. In Italy, an index of consumer confidence fell to 85.3 in June, the lowest since the data series began in 1996, from 86.5 in May.
Next week (28th and 29th) the EU will hold another summit meeting to TRY to find a solution to Europe’s debt and economic crises. The land of constant meetings continues with increasing loss of confidence that there is anything that will come of it. In the meantime the European Commission forecasts the euro-area economy will shrink 0.3 percent this year. At least eight member states are in recession. Spain’s 10-year bond yield surged above 7 percent this month, the level that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +68, NASDAQ +10; the 10 yr note -13/32 at 1.66%. MBS 30 yr mortgage prices -4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
Mortgage rates and treasury rates are confined within a narrow trading ranges. The bellwether 10 yr note since early June has stayed in a 10 to 12 basis point range with its 20 day average at 1.66% with the note at the moment at 1.65%, so far the 10 yr has note moved above its 20 day average on the yield since early April. 30 yr mortgages also holding its 20 day average on selling since early April. The relative strength index, measure of market momentum, on the 10 yr and MBSs remains slightly bullish. The Fed’s extension of Operation Twist through the rest of the year announced on Wednesday, isn’t pushing rates lower;$267B of buying at the long end of the curve isn’t likely to have much impact. The direction for rates over the next month will be decided by what happens in Europe and the EU summit next week. IF, and it is a huge IF, somehow Europe develops a plan to keep banks from failing and finds a way to support the debt crisis US interest rates will likely increase a little as safety moves into US treasuries will be unwound.
Treasuries and mortgages opened slightly weaker this morning with stock indexes a little better early on after the DJIA dropped 251 points yesterday. There are no data releases today and being Friday markets are likely to be rather mundane through the day.
Late yesterday afternoon Moody’s lowered credit ratings on 15 US and global banks, commenting the deterioration in debt quality has become worrisome. That Moody’s lowered big banks hasn’t caused any serious reaction, in fact after the ratings were announced the banks affected actually rallied in after-market trading yesterday. Moody’s announced last February it was analyzing banks in the wake of Europe’s debt crisis and originally the credit rating cuts were expected in May but Moody’s is saying it delayed it to give additional time to do its homework. The idea is that with lower credit ratings borrowing costs would increase, in this case that isn’t very likely as borrowing costs are so low and in some sense it is all relative in that most of the big banks fell together. One big bank commented the move was backward thinking as most banks that were cut were already beefing up their balance sheets. US banks downgraded; Citi, BofA, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Moody’s lowered rating based primarily on its outlook that global growth is declining.
The evidence of global slowing continues almost daily; today German business confidence fell to the lowest in more than two years in June as the worsening sovereign debt crisis clouded the economic outlook. The Munich-based Ifo institute said today its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped for a second straight month to 105.3 from 106.9 in May. That’s the lowest reading since March 2010. Yesterday a survey of purchasing managers showed German manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace in three years. He strongest economy in the euro region is sliding rapidly as the EU struggles to find a plan to shore up banks in Spain and Italy, work out a plan to keep Greece from crumbling and help Ireland and Portugal. In Italy, an index of consumer confidence fell to 85.3 in June, the lowest since the data series began in 1996, from 86.5 in May.
Next week (28th and 29th) the EU will hold another summit meeting to TRY to find a solution to Europe’s debt and economic crises. The land of constant meetings continues with increasing loss of confidence that there is anything that will come of it. In the meantime the European Commission forecasts the euro-area economy will shrink 0.3 percent this year. At least eight member states are in recession. Spain’s 10-year bond yield surged above 7 percent this month, the level that prompted Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +68, NASDAQ +10; the 10 yr note -13/32 at 1.66%. MBS 30 yr mortgage prices -4/32 (.12 bp) frm yesterday’s close.
Mortgage rates and treasury rates are confined within a narrow trading ranges. The bellwether 10 yr note since early June has stayed in a 10 to 12 basis point range with its 20 day average at 1.66% with the note at the moment at 1.65%, so far the 10 yr has note moved above its 20 day average on the yield since early April. 30 yr mortgages also holding its 20 day average on selling since early April. The relative strength index, measure of market momentum, on the 10 yr and MBSs remains slightly bullish. The Fed’s extension of Operation Twist through the rest of the year announced on Wednesday, isn’t pushing rates lower;$267B of buying at the long end of the curve isn’t likely to have much impact. The direction for rates over the next month will be decided by what happens in Europe and the EU summit next week. IF, and it is a huge IF, somehow Europe develops a plan to keep banks from failing and finds a way to support the debt crisis US interest rates will likely increase a little as safety moves into US treasuries will be unwound.
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