Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Markets are starting quietly this morning; today has no economic data to work on but the Administration is releasing the 2012 budget. The annual ritual, the budget next year as presented this morning at 10:30 is another miss as far as the deficit is concerned. The President's own commission that was charged to come up with ways to cut the debt, the recommendation from the bi-partisan group called for cuts of $4.0T, as presented this morning it will cut just $1.4T over the next three years. Nothing in the budget on dealing with the elephants; social security and Medicare or an admission that taxes will have to increase.
The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record $1.6 trillion -- 10.9 percent of gross domestic product -- up from $1.4 trillion the administration estimated previously, according to documents released this morning by the administration. It would fall to $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, the fourth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion. By 2015 it would decline to $607 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP.
While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.
Last week the bond and mortgage markets were focused on Treasury auctions with very little on the economy; this week markets have a number of economic reports to work on beginning tomorrow through Thursday.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
8:30 am Jan retail sales (+0.5%, ex autos +0.6%)
Feb NY Empire State manufacturing index (16.0 frm 11.92 in Jan)
Jan Import and Export prices (N/A)
10:00 am Dec business inventories (+0.7%)
NAHB Feb housing market index (16 unch frm Jan)
Wednesday:
7:00 am MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Jan housing starts and permits (starts +2.4% to 540K; permits -8.7% to 580K)
Jan PPI (+0.7%; ex food and energy +0.2%)
9:15 am Jan industrial production (+0.6%)
Jan capacity utilization (76.4% frm 76.0 in Dec)
2:00 pm FOMC minutes from 1/26 meeting
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+27K to 410K)
Jan CPI (+0.3%, ex food and energy +0.1%; con't claims to 3.90 mil frm 3.88 mil)
10:00 am Jan leading economic indicators (+0.2%)
Feb Philadelphia Fed business index (21.9 frm 19.3 in Jan)
The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have settled but we expect more to come from the mid-east. This morning there are rep[orts that people are getting roiled in Bahrain with security forces using tear gas and rubber bullets to quell the unrest. Expect more to come in the mid-east region; so far no serious violence, lets hope it stays that way. in the meantime the US must review and change man of its policies in the region.
Very quiet so far this morning; the DJIA opened -10 but is sliding lower. The rate markets generally unchanged so far but if equity indexes work lower it will support the bond market. We still do not want to float rates, best to lock as the bond and mortgage markets remain bearish fundamentally and technically.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: http://www.equityinvestmentcapital.com/
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Markets are starting quietly this morning; today has no economic data to work on but the Administration is releasing the 2012 budget. The annual ritual, the budget next year as presented this morning at 10:30 is another miss as far as the deficit is concerned. The President's own commission that was charged to come up with ways to cut the debt, the recommendation from the bi-partisan group called for cuts of $4.0T, as presented this morning it will cut just $1.4T over the next three years. Nothing in the budget on dealing with the elephants; social security and Medicare or an admission that taxes will have to increase.
The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record $1.6 trillion -- 10.9 percent of gross domestic product -- up from $1.4 trillion the administration estimated previously, according to documents released this morning by the administration. It would fall to $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, the fourth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion. By 2015 it would decline to $607 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP.
While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.
Last week the bond and mortgage markets were focused on Treasury auctions with very little on the economy; this week markets have a number of economic reports to work on beginning tomorrow through Thursday.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
8:30 am Jan retail sales (+0.5%, ex autos +0.6%)
Feb NY Empire State manufacturing index (16.0 frm 11.92 in Jan)
Jan Import and Export prices (N/A)
10:00 am Dec business inventories (+0.7%)
NAHB Feb housing market index (16 unch frm Jan)
Wednesday:
7:00 am MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Jan housing starts and permits (starts +2.4% to 540K; permits -8.7% to 580K)
Jan PPI (+0.7%; ex food and energy +0.2%)
9:15 am Jan industrial production (+0.6%)
Jan capacity utilization (76.4% frm 76.0 in Dec)
2:00 pm FOMC minutes from 1/26 meeting
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+27K to 410K)
Jan CPI (+0.3%, ex food and energy +0.1%; con't claims to 3.90 mil frm 3.88 mil)
10:00 am Jan leading economic indicators (+0.2%)
Feb Philadelphia Fed business index (21.9 frm 19.3 in Jan)
The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have settled but we expect more to come from the mid-east. This morning there are rep[orts that people are getting roiled in Bahrain with security forces using tear gas and rubber bullets to quell the unrest. Expect more to come in the mid-east region; so far no serious violence, lets hope it stays that way. in the meantime the US must review and change man of its policies in the region.
Very quiet so far this morning; the DJIA opened -10 but is sliding lower. The rate markets generally unchanged so far but if equity indexes work lower it will support the bond market. We still do not want to float rates, best to lock as the bond and mortgage markets remain bearish fundamentally and technically.
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: http://www.equityinvestmentcapital.com/
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Markets are starting quietly this morning; today has no economic data to work on but the Administration is releasing the 2012 budget. The annual ritual, the budget next year as presented this morning at 10:30 is another miss as far as the deficit is concerned. The President's own commission that was charged to come up with ways to cut the debt, the recommendation from the bi-partisan group called for cuts of $4.0T, as presented this morning it will cut just $1.4T over the next three years. Nothing in the budget on dealing with the elephants; social security and Medicare or an admission that taxes will have to increase.
The deficit for the current fiscal year is forecast to hit a record $1.6 trillion -- 10.9 percent of gross domestic product -- up from $1.4 trillion the administration estimated previously, according to documents released this morning by the administration. It would fall to $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, the fourth consecutive year of deficits exceeding $1 trillion. By 2015 it would decline to $607 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP.
While some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have helped the economy recover from its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, bond yields are now rising as growth resumes. Net interest expense will triple to an all-time high of $554 billion in 2015 from $185 billion in 2010, according to the Obama administration’s adjusted 2011 budget.
Last week the bond and mortgage markets were focused on Treasury auctions with very little on the economy; this week markets have a number of economic reports to work on beginning tomorrow through Thursday.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Tuesday;
8:30 am Jan retail sales (+0.5%, ex autos +0.6%)
Feb NY Empire State manufacturing index (16.0 frm 11.92 in Jan)
Jan Import and Export prices (N/A)
10:00 am Dec business inventories (+0.7%)
NAHB Feb housing market index (16 unch frm Jan)
Wednesday:
7:00 am MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Jan housing starts and permits (starts +2.4% to 540K; permits -8.7% to 580K)
Jan PPI (+0.7%; ex food and energy +0.2%)
9:15 am Jan industrial production (+0.6%)
Jan capacity utilization (76.4% frm 76.0 in Dec)
2:00 pm FOMC minutes from 1/26 meeting
Thursday;
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+27K to 410K)
Jan CPI (+0.3%, ex food and energy +0.1%; con't claims to 3.90 mil frm 3.88 mil)
10:00 am Jan leading economic indicators (+0.2%)
Feb Philadelphia Fed business index (21.9 frm 19.3 in Jan)
The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have settled but we expect more to come from the mid-east. This morning there are rep[orts that people are getting roiled in Bahrain with security forces using tear gas and rubber bullets to quell the unrest. Expect more to come in the mid-east region; so far no serious violence, lets hope it stays that way. in the meantime the US must review and change man of its policies in the region.
Very quiet so far this morning; the DJIA opened -10 but is sliding lower. The rate markets generally unchanged so far but if equity indexes work lower it will support the bond market. We still do not want to float rates, best to lock as the bond and mortgage markets remain bearish fundamentally and technically.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
This Week; after last week with little in the way of economic releases, the calendar has a number of key data points. Nothing on Monday or Friday but mid-week is loaded. Jan retail sales, both PPI and CPI for Jan, two regional Fed reports on the economy, two reports on the status of the manufacturing sector, and the minutes from the Fed's FOMC meeting on 1/26. Last week, after another swift spike in rates for mortgages and treasuries, the bond and mortgage markets improved a little; the 10 yr note yield fell to 3.64% frm 3.66% at the end of the previous week. Mortgages didn't show any improvement however, the 30 yr MBS price fell 12/32 (.37 basis points) on the week.
Interest rate markets continue their bearish trend and outlook. The economy is improving, as long as it continues and with the threat of inflation still high, rates will not show much improvement. We remain with our longer outlook that mortgage rates will continue to edge slowly higher but we still are not expecting a serious increase in rates. 5.5% on 30 yr mortgages by the end of the second quarter or early third quarter, then possibly a slow decline as the economic outlook stalls.
Ben Bernanke still holding to his QE 2 plan, $600B of treasury buying through the end of the 2nd quarter. Debate now is whether the Fed will try another easing move with QE 3, unlikely in our opinion, nevertheless if the economy were to falter and unemployment increases Bernanke will not hesitate. Bernanke is scheduled to speak again on Friday this week on global imbalances and financial stability at Banque de France Financial Stability Review in Paris.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
This Week; after last week with little in the way of economic releases, the calendar has a number of key data points. Nothing on Monday or Friday but mid-week is loaded. Jan retail sales, both PPI and CPI for Jan, two regional Fed reports on the economy, two reports on the status of the manufacturing sector, and the minutes from the Fed's FOMC meeting on 1/26. Last week, after another swift spike in rates for mortgages and treasuries, the bond and mortgage markets improved a little; the 10 yr note yield fell to 3.64% frm 3.66% at the end of the previous week. Mortgages didn't show any improvement however, the 30 yr MBS price fell 12/32 (.37 basis points) on the week.
Interest rate markets continue their bearish trend and outlook. The economy is improving, as long as it continues and with the threat of inflation still high, rates will not show much improvement. We remain with our longer outlook that mortgage rates will continue to edge slowly higher but we still are not expecting a serious increase in rates. 5.5% on 30 yr mortgages by the end of the second quarter or early third quarter, then possibly a slow decline as the economic outlook stalls.
Ben Bernanke still holding to his QE 2 plan, $600B of treasury buying through the end of the 2nd quarter. Debate now is whether the Fed will try another easing move with QE 3, unlikely in our opinion, nevertheless if the economy were to falter and unemployment increases Bernanke will not hesitate. Bernanke is scheduled to speak again on Friday this week on global imbalances and financial stability at Banque de France Financial Stability Review in Paris.
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: http://www.equityinvestmentcapital.com/
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
This Week; after last week with little in the way of economic releases, the calendar has a number of key data points. Nothing on Monday or Friday but mid-week is loaded. Jan retail sales, both PPI and CPI for Jan, two regional Fed reports on the economy, two reports on the status of the manufacturing sector, and the minutes from the Fed's FOMC meeting on 1/26. Last week, after another swift spike in rates for mortgages and treasuries, the bond and mortgage markets improved a little; the 10 yr note yield fell to 3.64% frm 3.66% at the end of the previous week. Mortgages didn't show any improvement however, the 30 yr MBS price fell 12/32 (.37 basis points) on the week.
Interest rate markets continue their bearish trend and outlook. The economy is improving, as long as it continues and with the threat of inflation still high, rates will not show much improvement. We remain with our longer outlook that mortgage rates will continue to edge slowly higher but we still are not expecting a serious increase in rates. 5.5% on 30 yr mortgages by the end of the second quarter or early third quarter, then possibly a slow decline as the economic outlook stalls.
Ben Bernanke still holding to his QE 2 plan, $600B of treasury buying through the end of the 2nd quarter. Debate now is whether the Fed will try another easing move with QE 3, unlikely in our opinion, nevertheless if the economy were to falter and unemployment increases Bernanke will not hesitate. Bernanke is scheduled to speak again on Friday this week on global imbalances and financial stability at Banque de France Financial Stability Review in Paris.
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: http://www.equityinvestmentcapital.com/
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
This Week; after last week with little in the way of economic releases, the calendar has a number of key data points. Nothing on Monday or Friday but mid-week is loaded. Jan retail sales, both PPI and CPI for Jan, two regional Fed reports on the economy, two reports on the status of the manufacturing sector, and the minutes from the Fed's FOMC meeting on 1/26. Last week, after another swift spike in rates for mortgages and treasuries, the bond and mortgage markets improved a little; the 10 yr note yield fell to 3.64% frm 3.66% at the end of the previous week. Mortgages didn't show any improvement however, the 30 yr MBS price fell 12/32 (.37 basis points) on the week.
Interest rate markets continue their bearish trend and outlook. The economy is improving, as long as it continues and with the threat of inflation still high, rates will not show much improvement. We remain with our longer outlook that mortgage rates will continue to edge slowly higher but we still are not expecting a serious increase in rates. 5.5% on 30 yr mortgages by the end of the second quarter or early third quarter, then possibly a slow decline as the economic outlook stalls.
Ben Bernanke still holding to his QE 2 plan, $600B of treasury buying through the end of the 2nd quarter. Debate now is whether the Fed will try another easing move with QE 3, unlikely in our opinion, nevertheless if the economy were to falter and unemployment increases Bernanke will not hesitate. Bernanke is scheduled to speak again on Friday this week on global imbalances and financial stability at Banque de France Financial Stability Review in Paris.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning after Treasury auctions. The 10 yr note continues to imp[rove after the spike up in rates last week, mortgages also tracking better. Not much driving news this morning, most talk is about Egypt but in terms of market impacts there hasn't been any. Mubarak didn't resign yesterday as media reported he would, demonstrators still there. Mubarak apparently has left Cairo and will continue as leader in name only but Egyptians still wanting him to resign now.
Economic data this morning had Dec wholesale trade balance at 8:30, the deficit was as expected, -$40.58B. The US imported that much more than we exported; no news there, it has been that way for years and will not change. The only significance to the report is the amount of deficit; less is good as a measurement of US competitiveness.
At 9:55 the morning the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 75 from 74.2, was 75.1. The current conditions component at 86.8 frm 81.8, expectations index at 67.7 frm 69.3 and the 10 month outlook at 78 frm 87. Treasuries and mortgages improved a little on the data with a less positive outlook. The sentiment index is volatile, we don't place a lot of emphasis on it but today's weaker current conditions, expectations and 12 month outlook will need to be monitored.
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell 17 percent in January from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of declines, as legal scrutiny of lender practices slowed actions against delinquent homeowners, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 261,333 U.S. properties received notices of default, auction or seizure, the Irvine, California-based data seller said today in a statement. One in every 497 households got a filing. It was the third consecutive month with fewer than 300,000 filings, following 20 straight months above that mark. “Unfortunately, this is less a sign of a robust housing recovery and more a sign that lenders have become bogged down in reviewing procedures, resubmitting paperwork and formulating legal arguments related to accusations of improper foreclosure processing,” James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. (Bloomberg News)
Treasury Sec Geithner and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan presented three approaches for a future housing finance system. It also calls for the government to shrink “and ultimately wind down” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bailed-out government-sponsored enterprise companies that helped fuel the housing bubble before being felled by investments in subprime mortgages. We won't take time now to go over the three plans, none of which will be fully implemented as presented, it is however going to happen. The time frame is long, possibly as soon as five years, more likely longer than that. At this time it isn't something to be focused on other than following the process over the next year or two.
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: www.equityinvestmentcapital.com
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning after Treasury auctions. The 10 yr note continues to imp[rove after the spike up in rates last week, mortgages also tracking better. Not much driving news this morning, most talk is about Egypt but in terms of market impacts there hasn't been any. Mubarak didn't resign yesterday as media reported he would, demonstrators still there. Mubarak apparently has left Cairo and will continue as leader in name only but Egyptians still wanting him to resign now.
Economic data this morning had Dec wholesale trade balance at 8:30, the deficit was as expected, -$40.58B. The US imported that much more than we exported; no news there, it has been that way for years and will not change. The only significance to the report is the amount of deficit; less is good as a measurement of US competitiveness.
At 9:55 the morning the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 75 from 74.2, was 75.1. The current conditions component at 86.8 frm 81.8, expectations index at 67.7 frm 69.3 and the 10 month outlook at 78 frm 87. Treasuries and mortgages improved a little on the data with a less positive outlook. The sentiment index is volatile, we don't place a lot of emphasis on it but today's weaker current conditions, expectations and 12 month outlook will need to be monitored.
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell 17 percent in January from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of declines, as legal scrutiny of lender practices slowed actions against delinquent homeowners, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 261,333 U.S. properties received notices of default, auction or seizure, the Irvine, California-based data seller said today in a statement. One in every 497 households got a filing. It was the third consecutive month with fewer than 300,000 filings, following 20 straight months above that mark. “Unfortunately, this is less a sign of a robust housing recovery and more a sign that lenders have become bogged down in reviewing procedures, resubmitting paperwork and formulating legal arguments related to accusations of improper foreclosure processing,” James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. (Bloomberg News)
Treasury Sec Geithner and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan presented three approaches for a future housing finance system. It also calls for the government to shrink “and ultimately wind down” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bailed-out government-sponsored enterprise companies that helped fuel the housing bubble before being felled by investments in subprime mortgages. We won't take time now to go over the three plans, none of which will be fully implemented as presented, it is however going to happen. The time frame is long, possibly as soon as five years, more likely longer than that. At this time it isn't something to be focused on other than following the process over the next year or two.
Mortgage Rates
Anthony Hood
Equity Investment Capital
Office: 949-891-0067
Email: tony@equityinvestmentcapital.com
website: http://www.equityinvestmentcapital.com/
Building Strong, Lasting Relationships; One Client at a Time.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Treasuries and mortgages opened better this morning after Treasury auctions. The 10 yr note continues to imp[rove after the spike up in rates last week, mortgages also tracking better. Not much driving news this morning, most talk is about Egypt but in terms of market impacts there hasn't been any. Mubarak didn't resign yesterday as media reported he would, demonstrators still there. Mubarak apparently has left Cairo and will continue as leader in name only but Egyptians still wanting him to resign now.
Economic data this morning had Dec wholesale trade balance at 8:30, the deficit was as expected, -$40.58B. The US imported that much more than we exported; no news there, it has been that way for years and will not change. The only significance to the report is the amount of deficit; less is good as a measurement of US competitiveness.
At 9:55 the morning the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 75 from 74.2, was 75.1. The current conditions component at 86.8 frm 81.8, expectations index at 67.7 frm 69.3 and the 10 month outlook at 78 frm 87. Treasuries and mortgages improved a little on the data with a less positive outlook. The sentiment index is volatile, we don't place a lot of emphasis on it but today's weaker current conditions, expectations and 12 month outlook will need to be monitored.
Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell 17 percent in January from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of declines, as legal scrutiny of lender practices slowed actions against delinquent homeowners, RealtyTrac Inc. said. A total of 261,333 U.S. properties received notices of default, auction or seizure, the Irvine, California-based data seller said today in a statement. One in every 497 households got a filing. It was the third consecutive month with fewer than 300,000 filings, following 20 straight months above that mark. “Unfortunately, this is less a sign of a robust housing recovery and more a sign that lenders have become bogged down in reviewing procedures, resubmitting paperwork and formulating legal arguments related to accusations of improper foreclosure processing,” James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. (Bloomberg News)
Treasury Sec Geithner and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan presented three approaches for a future housing finance system. It also calls for the government to shrink “and ultimately wind down” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bailed-out government-sponsored enterprise companies that helped fuel the housing bubble before being felled by investments in subprime mortgages. We won't take time now to go over the three plans, none of which will be fully implemented as presented, it is however going to happen. The time frame is long, possibly as soon as five years, more likely longer than that. At this time it isn't something to be focused on other than following the process over the next year or two.
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